Janjivan Bureau / New Delhi : With Jharkhand the BJP on Monday lost another state and its celebrated Narendra Modi-Amit Shah election machinery received another political setback; that too in the middle of countrywide protests against the amended Citizenship Act which the party-led government recently pushed through the Parliament.
Just six months back, the BJP had swept the state, winning 12 of its 14 Lok Sabha seats with a huge vote share — more than 55 per cent.
Even as BJP leaders point to its “increased vote share” since the last Assembly elections, murmurs have begun about people “rejecting non-adivasi” Raghubar Das due to his “arrogant” demeanour and party cadres, who supported Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha polls, refusing to stand by him for the same reason.
Perhaps not paying heed to dissenting voices like Saryu Rai, a former BJP minister, was a mistake the party realised the hard way. The BJP is now limited to big states like Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Assam and a few smaller ones like Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Goa and the northeast.
The fact that Modi magic is intact in the country but that states need acceptable-to-all local leaders belonging to dominant community — as seen in Haryana and reiterated by Jharkhand story — is something BJP managers need to be careful about “while foisting” their choice on states.
A non-dominant caste leader as the CM choice is bad. The JMM alliance has won comfortably, say observers.
However, BJP leaders call Jharkhand results “a reflection on Raghubar Das, a not-so-popular CM, bad selection of candidates and infighting”. “It is not about CAA or NRC, it is about Raghubar Das, otherwise how could Sarayu Rai win,” they insist.
BJP losing plot in Haryana, Maharashtra and now Jharkhand is expected to echo in states like Delhi and Bihar, the two states BJP chief Amit Shah failed to deliver despite the party sweeping the Lok Sabha polls in 2014, riding the “Modi wave”.
The Jharkhand template can be used by the Opposition to take on the Modi-Shah might in states like Bihar.
In Bihar, in particular, it can be said with a certain amount of certainty that NDA ally JD(U) and its leader Nitish Kumar, could walk away from the coalition, again. Though the BJP is expected to make all efforts to retain him in Bihar, even concede to him, but CAA can prove to be a major factor in the state where caste equations don’t balance without the “M”, Muslim factor. Nitish Kumar cannot take that risk now with the BJP.
Meanwhile, in a tweet BJP chief Amit Shah said: “We respect the verdict given by the people of Jharkhand.”
The 81-member Jharkhand Assembly witnessed a fierce battle for power between the ruling BJP and the JMM alliance along with smaller parties like AJSU and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) amid countrywide protests on the Citizenship Amendment Act.
While protests erupted in the country against the amended citizenship law and the proposed all-India National Register of Citizens (NRC), Jharkhand was still voting. Some reports indicated unrest and confusion among tribals, who form a huge chunk of voters there, on the issue.
NDA’s Bihar allies, JD(U) and LJP, had fought separately for the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly while rivals fought as one block — the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
While Jharkhand results will serve as an overall indicator of general sentiments regarding the BJP after recent political developments in Maharashtra and its below par performance in Haryana, given that last two phases were held in the midst of the protests—December 12 and 20—the outcome also indicates public mood on the latest burning issue before the country, many believe.